In Italy, the Food & Beverage supply chain has withstood the impact of Covid well (+ 0.8% in 2020 on 2019) compared to the collapse of the entire economy (-8.9%) and is preparing to experience a 2022 under the best auspices: expectations for the current year speak of further growth in the market (+ 6.3% compared to the pre-Covid period) driven by the first transformation (+ 16.4%), with all sectors in surplus against an average national growth estimated at + 3.7%. As for the sales channels, a further consolidation of large-scale food distribution is expected (+ 4.7% on 2019 and an aggregate turnover close to 100 billion euros), which however sees the discounters gaining ground behind it (+19.8 % in the three-year period 2022-2019), and a true e-commerce exploit, which will triple its market value.

These are some of the results contained in the research "Trends and prospects of the Food & Beverage market", presented and discussed with some authoritative market players: Giovanni Fazio, CEO of Holding Carisma; Andrea Oldrini, Partner of Bain & Company; Ludovica Principato, researcher at Roma Tre University, Vittorio Ratto, Deputy Director of Retail at Crèdit Agricole; Alessandro Terzulli, Chief economist of Sace. The studio inaugurates a new Cerved Marketing Intelligence observatory dedicated to the pillars of Made in Italy.

"The enhancement of Made in Italy will bring benefits to the entire supply chain", comments Andrea Mignanelli, CEO of Cerved. European targets, as many as 18% of the joint-stock companies in the supply chain against 8.4% calculated on the total of Italy. Of these, over 9,000, especially SMEs, could exit the market because they do not have the necessary fundamentals to support the investments necessary to the transition. On the other hand, the other 5,000 have a financial situation that allows them to finance investments of up to 1.2 billion euros, capable of accelerating the transformation of the entire supply chain".

In 2022, the development of the sector will mainly be the first transformation (+ 14.6% between 2022 and 2019), but the beverage segment will also restart (+ 4.6%) which had been strongly affected by the lockdown and closures in Horeca (-4.4% in 2020 over 2019). The difficulties experienced by the restaurant world, however, are not yet behind us: the recovery is there and it is evident, but it still will not allow the pre-Covid levels to be recovered (-3.5% in 2022 on 2019). Very good agriculture (+ 9.2%), distribution (+ 6.4%) and food (+ 4%); farming will reverse the trend, returning to the positive sign (+ 0.6%) against the previous -2.2%. As for prices, after years of zero inflation they are once again a strategic variable for Food & Beverage companies: the strong growth in the costs of energy, transport and food raw materials that we have been witnessing for some months have already had significant impacts for the consumer portfolio, and could further increase over the course of the year, with possible tensions on margins.