The number of people facing food insecurity globally will increase to 243 million by November, totaling 1.9 billion people, explains new research "Food Security and the Coming Storm", by Eurasia Group and DevryBV Sustainable Strategies. The report presented in New York at the inaugural Global Citizen Now summit offers new forecasts and policy recommendations for this global crisis, based on a collaborative approach between partners, relying on geopolitical scenario analysis, market modeling and relevant experience.

Russia's war against Ukraine has disrupted agricultural markets, increasing food inflation and world hunger. Along with the Covid-19 pandemic, war and countries' reactions are hugely increasing food prices worldwide, increasing the risk of poverty, hunger and malnutrition. The report presents three potential trajectories for the war between Russia and Ukraine: unstable stalemate, escalation and climbdown. The report estimates the impact of each on global food insecurity.

In particular, the most likely scenario, unstable stalemate (with a probability of 70%), is also the most serious with regards to the issue of world hunger. Even in the most optimistic scenario, the "climbdown" (probability of 5%), which assumes a ceasefire and an easing of the conflict, the level of food insecurity in 2022 would still be higher than in 2021. Before the war, the Hunger levels had already surpassed previous records set in 2021, with nearly 193 million people in severe food insecurity and in need of urgent assistance in 53 countries and territories.

Despite these negative predictions, the report says that if all nations cooperated, a range of measures could help reduce human suffering in any war scenario. These include a coordinated effort to keep food trade open with Ukraine and Russia despite sanctions and other war-related issues. Devry Boughner Vorwerk, CEO of DevryBV Sustainable Strategies, stressed that "while food aid is essential to tackle the immediate humanitarian crisis, this study also demonstrates the need to focus on local scale production areas in countries affected in the next 6-24 months. The G7 and multilateral lending institutions must allocate targeted emergency financing to areas with the greatest productive potential".

The complete report is attached to this EFA News.