Conab, Brazil's National Supply Company, has revised downward its coffee production estimate for the 2025/26 season. The forecast now calls for 55.2 million 60-kg bags of coffee to be produced, compared to the previously estimated 55.7 million bags. The data was published in Conab's latest Coffee Harvest Bulletin, published yesterday, September 4, 2025. Despite the decline, production is still projected to increase by 1.8% compared to the 2024/25 season. Conab emphasizes this growth is driven primarily by Conilon coffee, also known as "Robusta," and by a 3% increase in the national average productivity, which rose to 29.7 bags per hectare.

Arabica production, concentrated in Minas Gerais, where 75% of the cultivated area is located, is estimated at 35.2 million bags, down 11.2% from 2024/25, due to a negative two-year period and the drought that preceded flowering. Conilón, on the other hand, is expected to reach 20.1 million bags (+37.2%), thanks to favorable weather in the state of Espírito Santo (+40.3%) and growth in the states of Bahia (+33.5%) and Rondônia (+10.4%).

The total area dedicated to coffee cultivation in Brazil will rise to 2.25 million hectares (+0.9%), with an increase in areas under development (+11.9%), signaling potential for future expansion.

Finally, Conab emphasizes that for the Brazilian economy, "these data indicate a transition toward greater production resilience and new export opportunities, with strong growth in conilon, offsetting fluctuations in Arabica."