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Consumer prices 2023: inflation in sharp decline

However, widespread tensions remain on the prices of processed food goods, and other goods and services /Annex

According to preliminary estimates, in January 2023 the rate of change of the Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC) was +0.2% on monthly basis and +10.1% on annual basis (from +11.6% in December).

The slow down of the annual inflation rate in January was mainly due to the prices of Regulated energy products (from +70.2% to -10.9%) and, to a lesser extent, of Non-regulated energy products (from +63.3% to +59.6%), of Unprocessed food (from +9.5% to +8.0%) and of Services related to recreation including repair and personal care (from +6.2% to +5.5%). On the contrary, an upward contribution to the inflation rate came from the prices of Processed food including alcohol (from +14.9% to +15.2%), those of Non-durable goods (from +6.1% to +6.8%) and of Services related to housing (from +2.1% to +3.2%).

In January, the core inflation (All-items excluding energy and unprocessed food) was +6.0% (up from +5.8% in December), while the annual rate of change of the All-items index excluding energy was +6.2% (the same as in the previous month).

The annual rate of change of the prices of Goods was +14.2% (from +17.1% in December); as for Services the year on year growth rate was +4.2% (+4.1% in the previous month). As a consequence, the negative inflationary gap between Services and Goods slightly decreases (from -13.0 percentage points in December to -10.0).

Prices of Grocery and unprocessed food increased by +1.1% on monthly basis and by +12.2% on annual basis (down from +12.6% in the previous month).

The month on month increase of the All-items index was mostly imputable to the prices of Services related to housing (+1.6%), of Processed food (+1.5%), of Durable and Non-durable goods (+0.8% for both) and Non-regulated energy products (+0.7%); on the other hand the prices of Non-regulated energy products (-24.7%) and of Services related to transport (-1.6% mainly for seasonal factors) slowed down.

In January 2023, according to preliminary estimates, the Italian harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) decreased by 1.3% on monthly basis, due to the winter sales not considered by NIC, and increased by 10.9% on annual basis (from +12.3% in December).

Further details in the methodological note attached at the bottom of this EFA News.

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