Over the past month, international rice prices have confirmed a markedly downward trend. The price of US medium grain and Thai rice, the benchmarks for japonica and indica varieties, respectively, have reached their lowest levels in eight years, down approximately 50% from the records reached between 2023 and 2024. The declines are primarily driven by record Indian supply.

India, the world's leading producer and exporter, is enjoying a record production and export season, the latter also boosted by the government's removal of restrictions introduced in the 2022/23 crop year. The downward trend in basmati is less pronounced, driven by concerns that recent floods in India and Pakistan may have compromised part of the harvest, in a context already impacted by the shift in US demand to Pakistani products in response to the 50% tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Indian exports.

At the European and Italian levels, while awaiting the new harvest, prices remain at record levels, especially for indica varieties. The sustained premium of EU prices over international prices is primarily due to a domestic supply struggling to recover after the collapse of 2022/23 and a supportive macroeconomic outlook, with logistical slowdowns and high production costs.

Areté presented this analysis of the current situation and its expectations for the upcoming campaign at the European Rice Convention, an event organized by the Federation of European Rice Millers, held in Marbella from September 10 to 12.

China has not purchased any US soybeans for the 2025/26 crop year. According to Areté analysis, Beijing had already booked 3.9 million tons of soybeans for 2024 at the end of August; today, that figure has fallen to zero. The gap left by the United States was quickly filled by South American suppliers. Asian trade sources report that China has already booked 7.4 million tons of soybeans—mainly from Brazil and Argentina—for October shipments, covering 95% of expected monthly demand. An additional 1 million tons has already been optioned for November.

Relations between Washington and Beijing remain tense and fragmented. No new round of trade talks is expected before the end of October, fueling uncertainty on the agricultural front and leaving US exporters on the sidelines of the world's largest market. For American farmers, the message is clear: the window of opportunity is closing.