According to the FAO, world cereal production for 2025 is now estimated at 2,961 million tonnes, a new record and 3.5% higher than last year's level. The new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief attributed the upward revisions to significant increases in maize production forecasts for Brazil and the United States of America. Global coarse grain production, which includes maize, is now forecast to reach 1,601 million tonnes, up 5.9% from 2024, including a significant increase in sorghum production.

Meanwhile, the FAO has lowered its forecast for world wheat production to 804.9 million tonnes, still up about 0.8% from last year. The revised forecast includes lower yield prospects in China, due to weather conditions, and higher yields in the European Union. World rice production, on the other hand, is expected to increase by 1.0%, reaching a record high of 555.5 million tonnes, with increases in Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, and, particularly, Indonesia, which should more than offset projected declines in Madagascar, Nepal, the United States, and Thailand.

Total world cereal utilization in 2025/26 is projected to rise to 2 922 million tonnes, up 1.6 percent from the previous year, driven partly by projected increases in the use of maize and wheat for animal feed and aquaculture.

Global cereal stocks are also forecast to increase by 3.7% by the end of 2026, reaching a record high of 898.7 million tonnes. Based on the new forecast, the global cereal stock-to-use ratio in 2025/26 is expected to reach 30.6%, almost one percentage point higher than the previous season, confirming a comfortable global supply outlook.

FAO's new forecast also includes a 1.4% annual increase in international cereal trade, now expected to reach 493.4 million tonnes. Growth is supported by expectations of ample exportable maize stocks, strong wheat demand from China, Pakistan, Syria, and Turkey, and upwardly revised rice import forecasts from Bangladesh, Ghana, and Guinea-Bissau.