The second quarter of 2025 ended in a still uncertain picture for the global olive oil market. According to the Observatory on the International Olive Oil Market of Certified Origins, between April and June pressures were confirmed on several fronts: instability of trade flows, contraction of average prices, penalizing currency effects for exports (particularly European) and defensive strategies by the main producing countries.

At European level, the quarter recorded an overall growth in production of +40% compared to the previous year, driven mainly by Spain, Greece and Portugal. Spain confirmed its position as the world's leading producer with approximately 1.4 million tonnes (40% of the global total), followed by Greece (250,000 t), Italy (247,000 t) and Portugal (177,000 t) according to estimates still in the consolidation phase.

In the context of a partial recovery in supply, Italy confirmed the estimates already released in the first quarter, with production down 25% on an annual basis. The data reflects above all the unfavorable weather conditions and the structural difficulties that continue to affect the main olive-growing areas of the South, which have always been the production hub at a national level. Despite this contraction, the country maintains a central role in the international supply chain in terms of industrial capacity, processing and product quality.

At a commercial level, there has been a reduction in the average prices of extra virgin olive oil exported by the European Union. In view of the review of duties on European agri-food products, initially scheduled for July 9 and then postponed to August 1, there has been an increase in volumes directed towards the US market, as a result of advance strategies along the supply chain. At the moment, most products remain subject to a 10% tax, but the window for possible bilateral agreements remains open until the end of July.

In the first six months of the year, the United States imported more than 180,000 tons of olive oil, up from the same period in 2024. A significant portion of these flows is linked to an anticipated strategy by European suppliers to mitigate the effect of potential tariff increases.

At the same time, several European operators are evaluating different ways to strengthen their presence in the United States. Some are considering direct investments in new bottling plants, others are moving towards strategic collaborations with existing facilities for storage or packaging activities. The common goal is to maintain access to the North American market, in a constantly evolving logistical and regulatory context. However, the unfavorable euro/dollar exchange rate, together with domestic American inflation, is increasing the pressure on consumers' purchasing power and on the positioning of shelf prices.

In this scenario, interest in alternative markets has also strengthened among European operators, especially towards Asia and South America, where Brazil has proposed the elimination of import duties on olive oil and other food products. A measure that, if confirmed, could offer new commercial opportunities for European exports, especially at a time of strong exposure to the North American market.

“The second quarter showed a supply chain still under pressure, but also reactive and capable of adapting,” comments Giovanni Quaratesi , Head of Corporate Global Affairs at Certified Origins. “Italy, with its agricultural and industrial system, is facing a complex year, but remains a point of reference in the global value chain. The evolution of relations with the United States will be decisive, but it will be equally important to seize the signs of openness in emerging markets.”